Posts
These days I have had the opportunity to see some predictions that the
prestigious consulting firm Gartner did for the year 2012 through a methodology
developed by its consultants, called “Hype Cycle”. The Hype Cycle is a graphic
representation of different technologies maturity and adoption levels. It is divided
in five phases:
Technology
Trigger — The first phase of a hype cycle is the "technology trigger"
or breakthrough, product launch or any other event generating significant media coverage and arising
interest.
Peak
of Inflated Expectations — In the next phase, a frenzy of publicity typically
generates over-enthusiasm and unrealistic expectations. There may be some
successful applications of a technology, but there are typically more failures.
Trough
of Disillusionment — Technologies enter the "trough of
disillusionment" because they fail to meet expectations and quickly become
unfashionable. Consequently, the press usually abandons the topic and the
technology.
Slope
of Enlightenment — Although the press may have stopped covering the technology,
some businesses continue through the "slope of enlightenment" and
experiment to understand the benefits and practical application of the
technology.
"Plateau
of Productivity" — A technology reaches the "plateau of
productivity" as its benefits of it
become widely demonstrated and accepted. The technology becomes increasingly stable and evolves in second and third
generations. The final height of the plateau varies according to whether the
technology is broadly applicable or benefits only a niche market.
One
of the technologies analyzed by Gartner is the Augmented Reality that according
to the Hype Cycle is nowadays in the “Trough of disillusionment” lacking still five years
in order to reach the “Plateau of Productivity”, that is to say , it failed to meet the expectations
placed on it.
Just four or five years ago, when
it was in the “Peak of inflated expectations” it was going to be a revolution in the geolocation applications, it has became just only one more feature. The development
companies have clearly opted by the pattern recognition features, which allows to
enrich printed publications with multimedia information and to develop marketing campaigns.
It seems that geolocation applications don´t allow to develop viable
business models, because of the scarce value added for the users, which once the novelty wears off, they are no longer
interested in checking information
across their mobile phones cameras.
Perhaps the interest recovery will come thanks to new devices
such as Google Glass or
thanks to the addition of relevant information as shown in this Bentleyprototype, in which a sewerage system is shown, although, according to Gartner, we
will still have to wait some years Augmented
Reality broad adoption.
